I've crunched the numbers and a herd immunity strategy would lead to a lot of deaths Comment I've crunched the numbers and a herd immunity strategy would lead to a lot of deaths It sounds tempting to get younger people back to normal but shielding the vulnerable would be a monumental undertaking Member of Parliament for Harborough 17 October 2020 • 4:17pm A couple of MPs have recently advocated the ideas It’s the plan that we should end restrictions, get back to normal, and build up herd immunity among working age people, while isolating pensioners and other vulnerable people for six months or so as the virus spreads.
It sounds tempting to get younger people back to normal.
It’s not clear how we’d safely supply them with food as the virus spiked.
How many people would likely die on the way to herd immunity?
Well, although younger people are less likely to die of Covid-19, some do, and the isolation of old and ill people could never be complete: some will have to go to hospital or see carers, or live in care homes, or the young people living with them will not fully isolate and they’ll get it.
About eight per cent of people have had the virus so far (call it 10 per cent to be generous) and on the common assumption that we’ve need to get to 60 per cent for herd immunity to work, we’d need around a further 50 per cent of the younger population to get it.
If we look at mortality rates by age and combine them with the age profile of the UK, then if half of younger people got it and only five per cent of pensioners, that would mean around 90,000 deaths.
What is the track record of the people behind the Declaration?
One of its lead authors predicted in May: “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country.” She said the decline in cases was “due to the build-up of immunity.” She was wrong.
That’s important because the same reason they wrongly thought it was all over in the summer, is the reason they think it will work now.